Anfang April gab es einen viel beachteten Beitrag, der die aktuelle Weltwirtschaftskrise mit der Großen Depression vergleicht. Die Autoren haben ein Update bereitgestellt. Dies Message bleibt unverändert.
Beitrag übernommen von VoxEU:
What do the new data tell us?
- Global industrial production now shows clear signs of recovering.
This is a sharp divergence from experience in the Great Depression, when the decline in industrial production continued fully for three years. The question now is whether final demand for this increased production will materialise or whether consumer spending, especially in the US, will remain weak, causing the increase in production to go into inventories, leading firms to cut back subsequently, and resulting in a double dip recession.
- Global stock markets have mounted a sharp recovery since the beginning of the year. Nonetheless, the proportionate decline in stock market wealth remains even greater than at the comparable stage of the Great Depression.
- The downward spiral in global trade volumes has abated, and the most recent month for which we have data (June) shows a modest uptick. Nonetheless, the collapse of global trade, even now, remains dramatic by the standards of the Great Depression.
Figure 1. World industrial production, now vs then
Figure 2. World stock markets, now vs then
Figure 3. Volume of world trade, now vs then
Figure 5. Industrial output, four big Europeans, then and now
Figure 6. Industrial output, four non-Europeans, then and now
Figure 7. Industrial output, four small Europeans, then and now