European Central Bank Watch

Seit einiger Zeit erhalte ich immer Emails von einer Organisation mit dem Namen „Observator of the European Central Bank„. Diese Frage einmal im Monat meine Meinung zur EZB-Zinsentscheidung ab. Im Vorfeld der Enscheidung als Empfehlung an die EZB. Diese Mail leite ich ab jetzt mal so an die Leser weiter:

Democratizing the European Central Bank (ECB) Watch April 2009 Survey

Dear ECB watcher,

Last month, a 72.09 percent of our watchers thought that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem should be reduced,

0.78 percent believed that it should be raised and 27.13 percent thought that it should be maintained. The Governing Council of the ECB decided to reduce the key ECB interest rates by a further 50 basis points at its 5 March 2009 meeting to 1.50 per cent.

What should we recommend this month? Here is some information that has become available since then, related to the evolution of the euro area


– In the construction sector, seasonally adjusted production rose by 1.3% in January 2009, compared with the previous month. In December 2008, production fell by 2.8%.

– In January 2009 compared with December 2008, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 3.5%. In December, production decreased by 2.7%.

– Annual inflation was 1.2% in February 2009, up from 1.1% in January. A year earlier the rate was 3.3%. Monthly inflation was 0.4% in February 2009.

– The number of persons employed fell by 0.3% (453 000 persons) in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared with the previous quarter, according to national accounts estimates published by Eurostat. In the third quarter of 2008, employment declined by 0.1%. These figures are seasonally adjusted.

– In January 2009, compared with December 2008, the volume of retail

trade1 rose by 0.1%. In December retail trade fell by 0.3%.

– Total hourly labour costs rose by 3.8% in nominal terms in the year up to the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with 4.2% for the previous quarter.

– In January 2009 compared with December 2008, the industrial producer price index fell by 0.8%. In December 2008, prices decreased by 1.5%.

– Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.2% in January 2009, compared with 8.1% in December 2008. It was 7.3% in January 2008.

Once again, the question you have to answer is: If you were a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, what would you vote at its 5 February 2009 meeting?

A: Raise the interest rate on the main refinancing operations by 25 basis points or more

B: Keep the interest rate on the main refinancing operations at the current 1.50 percent

C: Lower the interest rate on the main refinancing operations 25 basis points or more

Please, notice that, as one of our members points out, we are trying to make a policy recommendation, and not to outguess the ECB Council.

If you want to join this initiative to democratize the ECB watch, please reply A, B, or C.

Thank you very much for your participation.

Was ist die Lesermeinung?


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